Optimization of Carbon Emission Reduction Task Allocation in China (2020–2030): A Cost-Based Inter-Provincial Cooperation Mechanism

Key findings from this study

This research indicates that:

• Cooperation at 80% proportion reduces national abatement costs by 60–70% compared to independent provincial implementation during 2020–2030.
• Optimal cooperation levels diverge temporally: 80% maximizes efficiency for 2020–2028, while 40% provides balanced outcomes by ensuring most provinces peak before 2030.
• The mechanism significantly narrows regional disparities in abatement costs, distributing mitigation burdens more equitably across provinces with varying abatement capacities.

Overview

This study proposes a cost-based inter-provincial cooperation mechanism to optimize carbon emission reduction task allocation across Chinese provinces during 2020–2030. The research addresses regional disparities in abatement capacities while pursuing China's carbon peaking target by 2030, aligned with UN Sustainable Development Goals and COP climate commitments. A marginal abatement cost curve model simulates provincial reduction tasks under various cooperation scenarios.

Methods and approach

The authors employed a marginal abatement cost curve model to simulate provincial carbon emission reduction tasks across multiple cooperation scenarios. The analysis examined cooperation proportions ranging from independent implementation to 80% inter-provincial coordination. Simulations covered the full 2020–2030 period, with distinct analysis of 2020–2028 and 2029–2030 subperiods to assess temporal variation in optimal cooperation levels.

Results

Cooperation substantially reduces national total abatement cost relative to independent provincial action. At 80% cooperation proportion, the cost-saving ratio reaches approximately 60–70% compared to uncoordinated implementation. Economic efficiency and regional peaking targets exhibit a trade-off: 80% cooperation optimizes 2020–2028 abatement costs, while 60% cooperation optimizes 2029–2030. However, 40% cooperation emerges as the balanced optimal ratio when ensuring most provinces achieve carbon peaks before 2030.

The mechanism narrows regional disparities in abatement costs substantially. Provinces with high marginal abatement costs benefit from cooperation through cost-sharing arrangements, while provinces with lower abatement costs increase reduction efforts. This redistribution achieves national targets while distributing economic burdens more equitably across regional economies with heterogeneous industrial structures and development levels.

Implications

The framework provides a scalable paradigm for inter-regional climate collaboration applicable beyond China's context. Differentiated cooperation strategies calibrated to temporal and regional circumstances enable simultaneous pursuit of global climate commitments and domestic regional equity objectives. The proposed mechanism reconciles tensions between centralized mitigation targets and provincial capacity constraints through market-based allocation principles.

Designing climate policy requires explicit consideration of cost-efficiency trade-offs against achievement of distributed decarbonization milestones. The 40% cooperation proportion recommendation reflects practical governance constraints alongside economic optimization, suggesting climate policy instruments must account for implementation feasibility and political economy considerations. Future inter-provincial and inter-national climate collaboration mechanisms may adopt similar cost-sharing frameworks to balance stringency with distributional outcomes.

Scope and limitations

This summary is based on the study abstract and available metadata. It does not include a full analysis of the complete paper, supplementary materials, or underlying datasets unless explicitly stated. Findings should be interpreted in the context of the original publication.