FORESCEM simulates fine-scale land use and land cover change

What the study found: The study presents FORESCEM, a process-based model that can spatially simulate fine-scale future land use and land cover changes. Applied to a French case study, the model was able to replicate land use and land cover change dynamics and simulate both trend-based and trend-breaking trajectories under contrasting scenarios.
Why the authors say this matters: The authors say that anticipating the socio-environmental impacts of spatial planning strategies is a prerequisite for sustainable development pathways. They present FORESCEM as a model designed to help assess interactions among land use and land cover changes in human-managed landscapes.
What the researchers tested: The researchers developed the FORecasting landscapE SCEnarios Model (FORESCEM) and applied it in a French case study. The model uses narratives developed through participatory or expert-driven approaches and distinguishes land covers and land uses as separate but related inputs.
What worked and what didn't: The validation results indicate that the model can replicate land use and land cover change dynamics. The abstract reports that it effectively simulated both trend-based and trend-breaking land use and land cover change trajectories under contrasting scenarios.
What to keep in mind: The abstract does not provide detailed limitations beyond noting that validation of land change models for future land use and land cover change is a broader issue discussed in the paper. The summary available here is limited to the abstract and title.

Key points

• FORESCEM is described as a process-based model for fine-scale future land use and land cover change simulation.
• In a French case study, validation results showed the model could replicate land use and land cover change dynamics.
• The model simulated both trend-based and trend-breaking trajectories under contrasting scenarios.
• The authors distinguish land covers and land uses as separate but related inputs in the model design.
• The abstract says anticipating socio-environmental impacts of spatial planning strategies matters for sustainable development pathways.