Evaluating the Relationship between Private Childcare Services and Maternal Labour Force Participation in Türkiye Using VECM

Overview

This study investigates the temporal relationship between private childcare service provision and maternal labour force participation in Türkiye using annual data spanning 2007-2023. The analysis examines multiple childcare service categories including private kindergartens and nurseries, Ministry of Family and Social Services affiliated institutions, and workplace-based nurseries. The research applies cointegration and causality analysis to establish both long-term equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamics between these variables, while accounting for pandemic-related disruptions.

Methods and approach

The study employs Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimation to decompose the relationship between childcare services and maternal labour force participation into long-run and short-run components. Granger causality tests are conducted to assess directional predictive relationships among variables. Data span the 2007-2023 period, encompassing the COVID-19 pandemic, whose effects are explicitly modeled as an exogenous shock in the analysis. The VECM framework allows simultaneous estimation of cointegrating relationships and adjustment dynamics toward equilibrium.

Key Findings

VECM results reveal a negative long-term relationship between childcare service provision and maternal labour force participation, whereas short-term effects are positive across all childcare service categories examined. COVID-19 pandemic effects are negative in both temporal dimensions, with pronounced short-term impact on maternal participation rates. Granger causality tests indicate no statistically significant predictive relationship from childcare service enrollment to maternal labour force participation. The reverse causal direction proves significant, with maternal labour force participation rates demonstrating explanatory power for subsequent childcare service enrollment patterns.

Implications

The finding of negative long-term association between childcare service availability and maternal participation suggests that increases in childcare provision do not sustainably expand maternal labour force engagement in the Turkish context during the study period. This reversal from positive short-term to negative long-term effects warrants examination of competing mechanisms, including demand-side saturation, compositional shifts in maternal demographics, or structural labour market constraints unrelated to childcare availability. The absence of causal influence from childcare services to maternal participation challenges the theoretical presumption of childcare supply as a binding constraint on maternal labour supply decisions.