Simulated Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution Range of Four Taxus Species in China

Overview

This study evaluates the potential geographic distribution patterns of four Taxus species native to China under current and projected future climate scenarios. Taxus species, Tertiary relict plants containing taxane compounds critical for pharmaceutical applications, face uncertain habitat viability given accelerating climate change. The research quantifies baseline distribution extents and forecasts shifts across three future temporal windows using species distribution modeling with four socioeconomic pathways of varying climate intensity.

Methods and approach

Species distribution modeling was conducted using MaxEnt with regularization multiplier and feature combination optimization via the ENMeval package for four Taxus taxa: Taxus cuspidata, Taxus wallichiana var. mairei, Taxus wallichiana, and Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis. Current climate conditions and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) were modeled across three future periods (2050s, 2070s, 2090s). Model validation employed area under the curve metrics. Environmental variable contributions were assessed to identify primary drivers of species-specific distribution patterns. Centroid shift analysis tracked latitudinal migration trajectories under climate change.

Key Findings

Model performance exceeded AUC threshold of 0.9 across taxa. Coldest monthly minimum temperature emerged as the primary environmental driver for three species; human footprint indexed as the dominant factor for Taxus cuspidata. Current suitable habitat distribution exhibited spatial heterogeneity, with Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis occupying the largest range at approximately 200.89 × 104 km2 (21.17% of China's terrestrial area). Future projections showed divergent responses: Taxus wallichiana and Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis manifested suitable area expansion across climate scenarios, while Taxus wallichiana var. mairei and Taxus cuspidata demonstrated variable contraction and expansion patterns depending on scenario and temporal window. Distribution centroids shifted toward higher latitudes across all taxa, with Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis displaying the most pronounced directional migration.

Implications

Projected habitat redistribution under future climate conditions necessitates adaptive management frameworks for wild population conservation and germplasm preservation of Taxus species. The differential responses across taxa and scenarios underscores variable climate sensitivity and suggest species-specific conservation priorities. Latitudinal centroid shifts indicate potential mismatch between current protected area networks and future suitable ranges, requiring dynamic reassessment of conservation site designation. For Taxus species with expanding suitable areas, colonization potential may exceed natural dispersal capacity, necessitating assisted migration or translocation protocols to optimize range occupation and genetic representation. Conversely, taxa with contracting distributions require intensified in situ protection and ex situ backup strategies to mitigate extinction risk. The divergent climate responses suggest complex species interactions merit investigation under multispecies framework. Human footprint prominence for Taxus cuspidata indicates anthropogenic pressures constitute non-negligible distribution constraints warranting land use consideration in conservation planning. Future work should integrate demographic modeling and economic viability of artificial propagation under shifting habitat suitability to support pharmaceutical supply chain resilience. Refinement of phenological responses and interspecific competition dynamics would enhance projection accuracy for species with expanding ranges.

Scope and limitations

This summary is based on the study abstract and available metadata. It does not include a full analysis of the complete paper, supplementary materials, or underlying datasets unless explicitly stated. Findings should be interpreted in the context of the original publication.