What the study found
Agricultural prices were found to be affected directly by changes in energy prices and indirectly through fertilizer prices.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors suggest that these price links matter for understanding how energy markets and fertilizer prices relate to agricultural markets. The study indicates that energy and fertilizer price movements are relevant for wheat, maize, and soybeans.
What the researchers tested
The researchers examined the direct impact of crude oil and natural gas prices on agricultural markets, specifically wheat, maize, and soybeans, and also tested the indirect effect through fertilizers. They used monthly data from January 1990 to February 2021 and extended the analysis up to 2024.
What worked and what didn't
The conditional covariances of energy and fertilizer prices captured the spikes during the 2008 crisis and the volatile period that followed. The deterministic nonlinear Fourier trends removed the unit root problem, and the results showed both direct and indirect effects on agricultural prices.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not describe additional limitations beyond the study period and the fact that the analysis was extended up to 2024. No further caveats are stated in the available summary.
Key points
- Agricultural prices were affected directly by energy prices.
- Energy prices also affected agricultural markets indirectly through fertilizers.
- The study examined crude oil and natural gas alongside wheat, maize, and soybeans.
- Monthly data from January 1990 to February 2021 were used, with the analysis extended to 2024.
- Conditional covariances captured spikes during the 2008 crisis and the volatile period after it.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Energy prices are linked to agricultural prices directly and through fertilizers
- Authors:
- Özgür Bor, Burçhan Sakarya
- Institutions:
- Başkent University, Başkent University Hospital
- Publication date:
- 2026-03-03
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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