Gender and Household Food Expenditure as a Complex System: Evidence from Türkiye

Overview

This study examines household food expenditure in Türkiye through a systems-based analytical approach, with particular emphasis on gender as a determinant of economic vulnerability. Using microdata from the 2018 Household Budget Survey, the research conceptualizes household food expenditure not as a simple function of income but as an emergent outcome of complex interactions among demographic, economic, and institutional factors operating within household structures.

Methods and approach

The analysis employs a two-stage computational framework combining Artificial Neural Networks and Tree-Augmented Bayesian Networks. The first stage applies ANNs to identify non-linear relationships among household characteristics and determine which variables most substantially influence the share of household budgets allocated to food consumption. The second stage constructs a probabilistic graphical model enabling counterfactual simulation through what-if scenarios that isolate the effects of specific variable configurations on food expenditure outcomes.

Key Findings

Female-headed households, particularly those composed of single individuals with limited educational attainment and unstable employment, demonstrate substantially elevated probabilities of allocating disproportionately large budget shares to food purchases. The analysis identifies income, education level, employment stability, savings capacity, and asset ownership as material determinants of food expenditure shares, with gender operating as a central organizing variable mediating these relationships. The empirical patterns align with Engel's law, demonstrating that the income elasticity of food expenditure declines at higher income levels.

Implications

The findings underscore the gendered dimensions of economic vulnerability in Turkish households, indicating that food security outcomes reflect not merely absolute income constraints but rather structural inequalities in human capital accumulation, labor market attachment, and asset ownership. The results suggest policy interventions targeting food security must operate beyond income supplementation to incorporate employment stabilization mechanisms, human capital investment, and facilitating access to productive assets. The systems-level framework demonstrates how household-level food security outcomes emerge from intersecting vulnerabilities rather than from isolated economic constraints.