What the study found
Landfalling atmospheric rivers (long, narrow bands of strong moisture transport) in the South Pacific have not yet shown robust historical trend changes in all measures, but high-resolution climate projections suggest they will become more widespread and easier to detect in the next 10–20 years. The authors also report that extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers could double before mid-century, even under a moderate emissions scenario.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors say the South Pacific may be a hotspot for some of the largest atmospheric river changes, and they conclude that the projected increase in extreme landfalling events could carry significant societal impacts. They also say updated high-resolution projections are urgently needed for this region.
What the researchers tested
The study reviewed historical trends from reanalysis data and compared them with high-resolution downscaled climate projections for the South Pacific. It examined both synoptic-scale features and percentile-based moisture transports related to atmospheric rivers, with attention to landfalling events over southern New Zealand and Tasmania.
What worked and what didn't
In reanalysis, significant trends in atmospheric river frequency were mostly limited to the ocean between about 45°S and 60°S. For landfalling atmospheric rivers, trends in synoptic-scale features were not yet considered robust, while percentile-based moisture transports showed stronger increases over parts of southern New Zealand and Tasmania. In the projections, trends became more widespread and were robustly detectable in 5 of 6 models, first appearing across southern New Zealand in spring and winter.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not describe detailed limitations beyond noting that some historical landfalling trends are not yet robust. The results are specific to the South Pacific region and to the datasets, projections, and scenarios described in the abstract.
Key points
- Historical atmospheric river frequency trends were mostly limited to the ocean, not landfalling areas.
- Landfalling trends in synoptic-scale features were not yet considered robust.
- Percentile-based moisture transports increased over parts of southern New Zealand and Tasmania.
- High-resolution projections suggest more widespread and detectable landfalling atmospheric river trends in 10–20 years.
- Extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers could double before mid-century under a moderate emissions scenario.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Landfalling South Pacific atmospheric rivers are projected to intensify
- Publication date:
- 2026-01-28
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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