EU agricultural assets face stranding under reduced animal-food consumption

What the study found: Reduced consumption of animal-sourced food (ASF; food from animals, such as meat, dairy, and eggs) in high-income countries risks stranding substantial ASF-related assets in European agriculture. The authors estimate that ASF assets make up 78% of fixed agricultural assets in the EU27 + UK.
Why the authors say this matters: The study suggests that policy- and climate-induced stranding risks are intertwined and should be included together in financial modelling as overlapping transition pressures. The authors conclude that integrated policy support is essential to help repurpose or phase out ASF-related assets and avoid delays in sustainable food system transformations.
What the researchers tested: The researchers linked agricultural and economic data to global multi-regional input-output models. They examined ASF-related fixed agricultural assets in the EU27 + UK and estimated how different levels of ASF consumption reduction would affect the share of assets that could become stranded.
What worked and what didn't: The study reports that €158 billion of ASF-related assets are linked to livestock and €100 billion to feed production. It estimates that ASF reductions in EU27 + UK consumption of 9.5%, 60%, and 100% could strand 18%, 50%, and 77% of these assets, respectively. Current depreciation rates are described as generally allowing enough time to phase out assets, which the authors present as a pathway to limit stranding.
What to keep in mind: The abstract does not describe detailed limitations beyond the scope of the modeling and the region studied. The findings are specific to EU27 + UK agriculture and the consumption scenarios evaluated.

Key points

• ASF-related assets make up 78% of fixed agricultural assets in the EU27 + UK.
• The study estimates €158 billion in assets linked to livestock and €100 billion linked to feed production.
• A 9.5% drop in ASF consumption could strand 18% of these assets, while a full reduction could strand 77%.
• The authors say policy- and climate-induced stranding risks should be modeled together.
• Current depreciation rates are described as generally leaving time to phase out assets.