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Weather regimes change short-term solar forecast error

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in
Earth and Planetary Sciences research
Photo by Zelch Csaba on Pexels · Pexels License
Research area:Earth and Planetary SciencesAtmospheric ScienceSolar Radiation and Photovoltaics

What the study found

The study found that short-term solar forecast errors change significantly depending on the prevailing North Atlantic weather regime. In particular, the Scandinavian Blocking, Atlantic Ridge, NAO+, and NAO- patterns were associated with different levels of forecast reliability.

Why the authors say this matters

The authors conclude that because weather regimes can be predicted several days in advance, their findings can help anticipate forecast error. They say this may be useful for optimizing photovoltaic (PV) integration management, electricity trading, and the development of machine-learning-based forecast algorithms.

What the researchers tested

The researchers performed an 8-year backtest of satellite-based solar forecasts made four hours ahead with a 15-minute time step. They compared those forecasts with pyranometer data, which are measurements of solar radiation made by a solar sensor, and examined how forecast errors varied across North Atlantic weather regimes.

What worked and what didn't

Forecast errors varied significantly by weather regime. The difference in relative RMSE, a measure of forecast error, between Scandinavian Blocking and Atlantic Ridge was 10-12% in summer during 2016-2020 and about 10% after 2020, while in winter it was around 20% before 2020 and 15% after 2020.

What to keep in mind

The abstract does not describe detailed limitations beyond the scope of the backtest and the weather regimes studied. The results are based on one satellite-based forecasting setup, four specific North Atlantic regimes, and the periods reported in the abstract.

Key points

  • Forecast errors depended strongly on the prevailing North Atlantic weather regime.
  • Scandinavian Blocking and Atlantic Ridge showed relative RMSE differences of 10-12% in summer during 2016-2020.
  • The summer RMSE difference was about 10% after 2020.
  • In winter, the RMSE difference was around 20% before 2020 and 15% after 2020.
  • The authors say the regimes can be predicted several days ahead, which may help anticipate forecast error.

Disclosure

Research title:
Weather regimes change short-term solar forecast error
Authors:
Swati Singh, Sylvain Cros, Jordi Badosa, Martial Haeffelin
Institutions:
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, École Normale Supérieure – PSL, École Normale Supérieure – PSL, École Normale Supérieure – PSL, École Normale Supérieure – PSL, École Polytechnique, École Polytechnique, École Polytechnique, École Polytechnique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Sorbonne Université, Sorbonne Université, Sorbonne Université, Sorbonne Université
Publication date:
2026-03-01
DOI:
10.1049/icp.2025.4576
OpenAlex record:
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Image credit:
Photo by Zelch Csaba on Pexels · Pexels License
AI provenance: This post was generated by gpt-5.4-mini (OpenAI). The original authors did not write or review this post.