What the study found
Even with substantial Western assistance, Ukraine was unlikely to achieve the kind of victory needed to compel Russia to accept defeat and address the core issues.
Why the authors say this matters
The findings indicate that policy should emphasize diplomacy, and the authors suggest scholarship should examine why this unfeasible approach received strong backing.
What the researchers tested
The paper draws on the Klosek et al. (2021) dataset of frozen conflicts and outlines five criteria that are necessary to bring a frozen conflict to a military end. It then uses two counterfactual scenarios to assess whether increased or accelerated Western aid could have enabled Ukraine to meet those criteria.
What worked and what didn't
The analysis concludes that Ukraine’s victory-oriented approach was implausible. The abstract says this was not mainly because of a lack of Western weapons, but because the approach did not resolve entrenched political issues and lacked structural military advantages.
What to keep in mind
The available summary does not describe additional limitations beyond the scope of the counterfactual analysis. The paper’s conclusion is based on the criteria it outlines and the scenarios it tests.
Key points
- The paper concludes that Ukraine was unlikely to secure the kind of victory needed to force Russia to accept defeat.
- The abstract says substantial or faster Western aid would still probably not have changed that outcome.
- The analysis uses five criteria for ending a frozen conflict militarily and tests two counterfactual scenarios.
- The authors say the main obstacles were entrenched political issues and the lack of structural military advantages, not just weapons shortages.
- The authors suggest policy should emphasize diplomacy.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Ukraine’s victory-oriented strategy was deemed unlikely to succeed
- Authors:
- Jan Ludvik
- Institutions:
- Charles University
- Publication date:
- 2026-01-21
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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