What the study found
The study found two inflation regimes in the WAEMU: a high regime and a low regime. It also found that the exogenous determinants of these regimes, including the output gap, imported inflation, and oil prices, are outside the control means of the BCEAO (the Central Bank of West African States) money supply.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors suggest these findings open a debate about which institutions should be responsible for price stability in the WAEMU. They also indicate that the study provides additional qualitative information beyond traditional quantitative inflation forecasting tools.
What the researchers tested
The researchers used Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MSVAR) models, a time-series method that allows inflation behavior to change across different regimes, to develop indicators of cyclical turning points in inflation in the WAEMU region. The study focused on inflation patterns and their determinants in the West African Economic and Monetary Union.
What worked and what didn't
The model identified two inflation regimes, which the authors present as a successful result. The study also found that output gap, imported inflation, and oil prices are not controlled by the BCEAO's money supply, which means the central bank alone may not account for these drivers.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not describe detailed limitations, sample size, or model performance measures. The summary is limited to the information provided in the title and abstract.
Key points
- Two inflation regimes were identified in the WAEMU: high and low.
- The study used Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MSVAR) models.
- Output gap, imported inflation, and oil prices were identified as exogenous determinants of the inflation regimes.
- These determinants are outside the control means of the BCEAO money supply.
- The authors say the findings open debate about responsibility for price stability in the WAEMU.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Two inflation regimes detected in WAEMU
- Authors:
- Pr. Allé Nar Diop Diop, Dr. Mbaye AW
- Publication date:
- 2026-01-22
- OpenAlex record:
- View
- Image credit:
- Photo by Paul-Christian M on Unsplash · Unsplash License
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