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Projected land cover change slightly increases flood discharge

An aerial photograph showing a meandering river or stream with pale sandy/silty water winding through brown and tan agricultural fields, with darker forested areas visible on the right side and mixed land cover creating a patchwork pattern across the watershed terrain.
Research area:Environmental ScienceHydrology and Watershed Management StudiesFlood Risk Assessment and Management

What the study found

Projected land cover change in the Cijangkelok Watershed is linked with small increases in design flood discharge, while the authors describe the overall flood potential as still moderate.

Why the authors say this matters

The study suggests that land cover change can affect rainy-season flooding in the watershed. The authors conclude that the projected changes increase flood potential, although most conversion is to rice fields, which they say act as temporary water storage and delay direct runoff.

What the researchers tested

The researchers compared land cover for 2009 and 2022 and modeled a 2035 scenario using QGIS MOLUSCE with an artificial neural network (ANN), a machine-learning approach used for prediction. They then applied Curve Number, Impervious, and Initial Abstraction values in HEC-HMS flood simulations using SCS and Snyder Unit Hydrograph methods.

What worked and what didn't

The 2035 land-cover prediction had a minimum overall error of 0.0332 and a Kappa coefficient of 0.765, which the abstract describes as indicating good model reliability. Composite Curve Number rose from 67.9 in 2009 to 68.0 in 2022 and 68.4 in 2035; Impervious values increased from 5.6 to 5.7 and 6.4; and Initial Abstraction fell from 24.0 to 23.9 and 23.5. Flood discharge increased from 617.2 to 623.8 to 641.3 m³/s with the SCS method and from 621.3 to 621.6 to 630.5 m³/s with the Snyder method; comparisons with frequency-based design flood discharge gave PBIAS values of 0.1–0.2 and NSE of 1.0, which the abstract calls very good.

What to keep in mind

The abstract does not provide detailed limitations beyond the reported model error and fit statistics. The findings are specific to the Cijangkelok Watershed and the land-cover scenarios tested here.

Key points

  • Projected land cover change in the Cijangkelok Watershed is associated with slightly higher design flood discharge.
  • The main projected land conversion is from dryland to rice fields, built-up areas, and forest plantations.
  • The 2035 land-cover model reported an overall error of 0.0332 and a Kappa coefficient of 0.765.
  • Flood discharge rose under both HEC-HMS methods: SCS and Snyder Unit Hydrograph.
  • The abstract reports very good agreement with frequency-based design flood discharge, with PBIAS of 0.1–0.2 and NSE of 1.0.

Disclosure

Research title:
Projected land cover change slightly increases flood discharge
Authors:
Vika Febriyani, Y Suryadi, Tri Wahyudin Ahmad, Arief Yudho Wicaksono, Yosephina Puspa Setyoasri
Institutions:
Bandung Institute of Technology
Publication date:
2026-02-24
DOI:
10.23960/jtepl.v15i1.419-430
OpenAlex record:
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AI provenance: This post was generated by OpenAI. The original authors did not write or review this post.

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