Effects of climate change on physical inactivity: a panel data study across 156 countries from 2000 to 2022

Overview

This panel data study quantifies the relationship between rising temperatures and physical inactivity prevalence across 156 countries from 2000 to 2022, projecting future health and economic consequences under multiple climate scenarios. Using binned fixed-effects regression analysis, the research establishes that elevated heat exposure significantly increases physical inactivity rates, with pronounced effects in low-income and middle-income countries. The study integrates climate projections, mortality risk estimates, and economic valuation to forecast premature deaths and productivity losses attributable to temperature-driven increases in sedentary behaviour by 2050.

Methods and approach

The analysis employed a longitudinal panel dataset encompassing 156 countries over 23 years, utilising binned fixed-effects regression to model the association between age-standardised physical inactivity prevalence in adults aged 18 years and older and annual temperature exposure across defined thermal ranges. Climate projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5) were applied to estimate future physical inactivity prevalence. Projected increases in inactivity were converted to excess mortality using established relative-risk coefficients for all-cause mortality. Economic burden was quantified through a friction-cost approach calibrated to country-specific gross domestic product and labour participation rates to estimate lost productivity.

Key Findings

Each additional month with mean temperature exceeding 27.8°C associated with 1.44 (95% CI 0.49–2.39) percentage point increase in global physical inactivity prevalence, with substantially greater effect in low-income and middle-income countries at 1.85 (0.62–3.08) percentage points. By 2050, physical inactivity prevalence is projected to increase by 0.98 (0.47–1.49) percentage points under SSP1–2.6, 1.22 (0.58–1.85) under SSP2–4.5, and 1.75 (0.84–2.66) under SSP5–8.5 scenarios. Geographic hotspots with projected increases exceeding 4 percentage points identified in Central America, the Caribbean, eastern sub-Saharan Africa, and equatorial southeast Asia. Projected mortality burden by 2050 ranges from 0.47 to 0.70 million excess deaths annually, with associated productivity losses between International Dollar 2.40 and 3.68 billion per annum across scenarios.

Implications

The findings establish a quantifiable pathophysiological pathway through which climate change influences population-level mortality and economic productivity via temperature-induced reductions in physical activity. The concentration of projected burden in tropical and lower-latitude regions reflects both greater absolute temperature increases and preexisting vulnerability in low-resource settings with limited adaptive capacity. These results underscore climate change as an emerging determinant of non-communicable disease epidemiology, with cascading consequences for public health systems and economic performance in regions already experiencing substantial disease burden.

Scope and limitations

This summary is based on the study abstract and available metadata. It does not include a full analysis of the complete paper, supplementary materials, or underlying datasets unless explicitly stated. Findings should be interpreted in the context of the original publication.