What the study found
Among the CO2-based sustainable aviation fuel pathways assessed, methanol-to-jet had the lowest net production costs and Fischer-Tropsch had the highest. The study also found that hydrogen production was a major cost driver across all scenarios.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors say comparative techno-economic insights across production pathways and regions remain limited, and the study provides a harmonized techno-economic assessment across Europe, the USA, and the Middle East. They also note that aviation accounts for around 2.4% of global CO2 emissions and that demand is expected to grow significantly by 2050.
What the researchers tested
The researchers carried out a harmonized techno-economic assessment of four CO2-based sustainable aviation fuel pathways for e-kerosene production: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, methanol-to-jet with two variants, and ethanol-to-jet via direct CO2 gas fermentation. They modeled the pathways in Aspen Plus V14 and evaluated them with a custom techno-economic tool across regional scenarios for Europe, the USA, and the Middle East.
What worked and what didn't
Methanol-to-jet with direct CO2 hydrogenation was consistently the most cost-efficient route, with net production costs of about 2.8–5.3 USD per kg of SAF. Fischer-Tropsch performed worst because of extensive tail gas recycling loops and low single-pass CO conversion, while ethanol-to-jet showed intermediate performance but had uncertainties tied to large-scale gas fermentation.
What to keep in mind
The net production costs reported, 2.8 to 8.2 USD per kg of SAF, were above the approximate 1 USD per kg cost of fossil Jet A-1 fuel. The abstract also notes that electrolysis accounted for 55–80% of capital expenditure and that variable operating costs were driven by electricity demand, but it does not provide further limitations beyond these points.
Key points
- Methanol-to-jet had the lowest net production costs among the assessed CO2-based SAF pathways.
- Fischer-Tropsch had the highest costs, mainly because of tail gas recycling loops and low single-pass CO conversion.
- Hydrogen production through electrolysis accounted for 55–80% of capital expenditure in all scenarios.
- Net production costs ranged from 2.8 to 8.2 USD per kg of SAF, above the approximate 1 USD per kg cost of fossil Jet A-1.
- Alcohol-based routes showed higher carbon and energy efficiencies than Fischer-Tropsch.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Methanol-to-jet had the lowest costs in CO2-based SAF pathways
- Authors:
- Severin Sendlhofer, Willy Duan, Raphael Allgäuer, Markus Maly, Robert Paulnsteiner, Dominik Wimmer, Christoph Markowitsch
- Institutions:
- Montanuniversität Leoben
- Publication date:
- 2026-03-11
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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