Analysis of a New Mathematical Model for Epidemic Fear Propagation Under Media Influence

Overview

This study develops a mathematical model to analyze epidemic-related fear propagation dynamics within populations under media influence. The model incorporates five psychological compartments based on fear status and awareness level: susceptible, aware, exposed, fearful, and recovered. Fear transmission occurs through both direct interpersonal contact among exposed and fearful individuals and indirect exposure to negative media content. The framework extends traditional epidemiological modeling by explicitly incorporating psychological fear dynamics as a mechanism for behavioral modification during epidemic events.

Methods and approach

The model employs a compartmental structure differentiating individuals by fear status and awareness level. A basic reproduction number is derived in association with exposed and fearful populations and media-transmitted information. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on the threshold parameter relative to model parameters. Stability analysis is performed at both fear-free and endemic equilibrium points, examining local and global stability properties. Model parameterization is grounded in empirical data from COVID-19 fear studies in Turkey, with numerical simulations generated to demonstrate model dynamics under specified parameter conditions.

Key Findings

Numerical simulations demonstrate that fear propagation intensifies with decreasing awareness levels and increased direct interpersonal contact between susceptible and fearful populations. Media-transmitted negative information constitutes a significant indirect transmission pathway for fear propagation. Under elevated fear levels, population clustering within the fearful compartment creates increased contact rates with susceptible and aware groups, amplifying overall fear propagation dynamics. The threshold parameter exhibits sensitivity to model parameters governing awareness decay, interpersonal contact rates, and media influence intensity.

Implications

The findings establish that fear functions as a quantifiable epidemiological variable influencing population-level behavioral responses during epidemic events. Psychological factors, particularly fear, operate as significant drivers of behavioral heterogeneity and modify contact patterns within populations. The model framework suggests that epidemic control strategies necessitate consideration of fear-mediated behavioral changes alongside conventional epidemiological interventions.

Scope and limitations

This summary is based on the study abstract and available metadata. It does not include a full analysis of the complete paper, supplementary materials, or underlying datasets unless explicitly stated. Findings should be interpreted in the context of the original publication.