What the study found
The study found a bilateral, nonlinear relationship between natural gas prices and the green bond market. In the short run, higher natural gas prices are likely to have a negative effect on green bond performance, while green bond growth is associated with a positive effect on natural gas prices over the short to medium term.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that green bonds are important for supporting sustainable development goals, but their relationship with transitional energy markets such as natural gas changes over time. The findings indicate that financial strategies may need to be realigned with long-term sustainability goals.
What the researchers tested
The researchers examined the dynamic and distributional association between natural gas prices and the green bond market in a sustainable development context. They used monthly data from 2013 to 2025 and a Quantile-on-Quantile approach, which is a method for studying how different parts of one variable's distribution relate to different parts of another's under changing market conditions.
What worked and what didn't
The Quantile-on-Quantile analysis showed that natural gas price increases were linked to weaker green bond performance in the short run. It also showed that growth in the green bond market had a positive short-to-medium-term effect on natural gas prices. Over the long run, the paper reports that natural gas development becomes increasingly shaped by sustainable finance and the shift toward lower-carbon energy systems, with a structural decline in fossil fuel dependence.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not describe specific limitations beyond the fact that the results come from monthly data covering 2013 to 2025. The summary also does not provide details on datasets beyond the two markets studied or on any uncertainty measures.
Key points
- The study finds a bilateral, nonlinear relationship between natural gas prices and the green bond market.
- Higher natural gas prices are likely to reduce green bond performance in the short run.
- Green bond market growth is associated with a positive short-to-medium-term effect on natural gas prices.
- The authors describe natural gas as a transitional fuel in the energy transition.
- The paper uses monthly data from 2013 to 2025 and a Quantile-on-Quantile approach.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Natural gas prices and green bonds affect each other over time
- Authors:
- Jiawen Wu, Jingping Li, Xiaofei Jin, Chi-Wei Su
- Institutions:
- Central University of Finance and Economics, Qingdao University, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics
- Publication date:
- 2026-02-27
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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