Satellite-based estimation of high-altitude ice cloud radiative forcing derived through a Rapid Contrail-RF Estimation Approach

Overview

This study presents the Rapid Contrail-RF Estimation Approach, a methodology for quantifying radiative forcing from high-altitude ice clouds, including potential contrail cirrus clouds, using geostationary satellite observations. Contrails are anthropogenic ice clouds formed by aircraft at cruise altitudes that strongly influence Earth's radiation budget, yet measurement of their radiative forcing remains poorly quantified at high temporal resolution. Among non-CO2 aviation effects, contrail cirrus clouds most likely have the largest impact on the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget. The approach aims to address the need for efficient observation methods to estimate radiative forcing from contrails on smaller spatial and temporal scales than global circulation models provide. The work focuses on developing and validating a rapid estimation technique that can generate high-resolution radiative forcing maps from existing satellite cloud retrieval products.

Methods and approach

The methodology utilizes observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager onboard Meteosat Second Generation satellites to identify and analyze high-altitude ice clouds. For six selected days with potential contrails, ice cloud characterization was performed using the Optimal Cloud Analysis product from MSG/SEVIRI data provided by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. Pre-computed Look-Up Tables were constructed using the libRadtran radiative transfer model to quantify radiative effects in both short-wave and long-wave spectral regions. A cloud top pressure filter was applied to isolate high-altitude ice clouds, including potential contrails. The approach generates radiative forcing maps at the top of the atmosphere by applying these Look-Up Tables to cloud retrieval products. Validation was conducted through correlation exercises examining uncertainties in Look-Up Table usage, single ice cloud parameterization, and calculated cloud top height, supplemented by comparisons with polar orbiting satellite observations from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System instruments.

Results

The resulting dataset provides quantification of short-wave, long-wave, and net radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere attributable to potential contrails. Analysis demonstrates that these clouds contribute to daytime cooling through reflection of incoming solar radiation in the short-wave spectrum and nighttime warming through trapping of outgoing long-wave radiation, with net effects that vary between diurnal cycles. Correlative comparisons with independent satellite observations indicate that the proposed approach provides accurate estimation of radiative forcing for high-altitude ice clouds, including potential contrails, with an accuracy of approximately 15 percent. The validation exercises confirm the reliability of using pre-computed Look-Up Tables combined with cloud retrieval products to rapidly generate radiative forcing estimates. The methodology successfully captures the dual radiative effects of contrail cirrus clouds, with the balance between cooling and warming dependent on cloud properties and environmental conditions.

Implications

This research provides a validated methodology for high-temporal-resolution monitoring of contrail radiative forcing using operationally available geostationary satellite data, addressing a significant gap in understanding aviation's climate impact. The approximately 15 percent accuracy achieved through the rapid estimation approach makes it suitable for routine monitoring applications where computational efficiency is essential. The technique enables analysis of contrail radiative effects on regional and diurnal scales that are not readily accessible through global circulation models or less frequent polar-orbiting observations. The demonstrated capability to quantify the net radiative effect, accounting for both short-wave cooling and long-wave warming components, supports more comprehensive assessment of aviation's non-CO2 climate forcing contributions. The methodology's reliance on existing operational satellite products and pre-computed Look-Up Tables facilitates potential implementation for operational climate monitoring and could inform strategies for mitigating aviation's climate impact through contrail avoidance or reduction measures.

Disclosure

• Research title: Satellite-based estimation of high-altitude ice cloud radiative forcing derived through a Rapid Contrail-RF Estimation Approach
• Authors: Ermioni Dimitropoulou, Pierre de Buyl, Nicolas Clerbaux
• Publication date: 2026-01-21
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-437-2026
• OpenAlex record: View
• Image credit: Photo by SevenStorm JUHASZIMRUS on Pexels (Source • License)
• Disclosure: This post was generated by artificial intelligence. The original authors did not write or review this post.