War in the campaign? Issue emphasis and issue salience during the 2022 French presidential campaign

Overview

This study examines how the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022 affected issue emphasis strategies among candidates during the French presidential election campaign. The conflict occurred six weeks before the election, creating an exogenous geopolitical shock that potentially disrupted established campaign dynamics. The research investigates whether candidates adjusted their issue emphasis in response to the crisis and the extent to which these adjustments corresponded to shifts in voter issue salience. The analysis focuses on six major candidates and explores the relationship between external crisis events, candidate strategic behavior, and public opinion priorities during electoral competition.

Methods and approach

The study employs a dual-method approach combining media content analysis with public opinion survey data. Issue emphasis by candidates is measured using the PolDem dataset, which provides systematic data on campaign messaging. Voter issue salience is assessed through the Enquête Electorale Française (EnEF) survey data. The research design enables systematic comparison of issue emphasis patterns across six major candidates over the course of the campaign period. The analytical framework distinguishes between mainstream and challenger candidates to evaluate whether different candidate types exhibited distinct strategic responses to the external shock. Temporal analysis tracks how issue emphasis evolved from the initial outbreak of the Ukraine crisis through the remainder of the campaign.

Results

Candidates initially responded to the Ukraine crisis by emphasizing the issue in their campaign messaging, but this emphasis declined over time as economic concerns came to dominate the campaign agenda. Mainstream candidates demonstrated closer alignment with public issue salience than challenger candidates, who pursued more selective issue emphasis strategies. A notable finding involves Marine Le Pen, typically categorized as a challenger candidate, who exhibited behavioral patterns consistent with mainstream candidates by prioritizing economic issues rather than her traditionally owned themes such as immigration. The analysis reveals that while the external geopolitical shock temporarily influenced campaign discourse, it did not fundamentally reshape the structure of electoral competition. Economic issues ultimately prevailed as the central focus of both candidate messaging and voter concerns.

Implications

The findings contribute to theoretical understanding of how external crises interact with electoral campaign dynamics and issue ownership strategies. The research demonstrates that exogenous shocks, even those of significant geopolitical magnitude, may produce only transient effects on campaign agendas when they conflict with persistent voter concerns such as economic issues. The divergent behavior of mainstream versus challenger candidates supports existing theories of strategic issue emphasis, though the case of Marine Le Pen suggests that candidate categorization may require more nuanced consideration of strategic positioning. The study has implications for understanding electoral competition under conditions of external disruption, indicating that campaign agendas exhibit considerable inertia and tend to revert to core voter priorities. These results inform broader debates regarding issue salience theory, the relationship between public opinion and candidate strategy, and the durability of campaign issue hierarchies in the face of unexpected international events.

Disclosure

• Research title: War in the campaign? Issue emphasis and issue salience during the 2022 French presidential campaign
• Authors: Elie Michel
• Publication date: 2026-01-09
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688261415758
• OpenAlex record: View
• Disclosure: This post was generated by artificial intelligence. The original authors did not write or review this post.