Modelling sustainability of passenger fleet transition : Assessment of policy and environmental outcomes

Overview

This study examines the long-term sustainability of Norway's electric vehicle fleet transition through system dynamics modeling. The research investigates whether Norway's current trajectory of 96% EV new car sales in 2024 can be maintained, with particular attention to consumer behavior drivers, policy mechanisms, and environmental outcomes. A distinctive methodological contribution involves the incorporation of Hofstede's cultural dimensions framework into consumer behavior modeling, representing an underexplored dimension in prior EV adoption research.

Methods and approach

The research employs system dynamics modeling to simulate passenger fleet transition pathways. Consumer behavior is operationalized through integration of Hofstede's cultural dimensions alongside conventional factors such as vehicle range, affordability, and charging infrastructure availability. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to evaluate the comparative influence of policy timing, infrastructure deployment, and social influence mechanisms on market dynamics. Scenario analysis generates projections under current policy regimes to 2050.

Results

Scenario modeling under sustained current policies projects 97% EV sales penetration by 2025, with fleet-wide emissions declining approximately 59% by 2050. Sensitivity analysis identifies vehicle range, affordability, and charging infrastructure as critical drivers of transition momentum. Policy timing, infrastructure expansion velocity, and social influence mechanisms emerge as primary leverage points affecting market dynamics and transition sustainability. The analysis indicates differentiated roles for short-term versus long-term policy interventions in maintaining transition momentum.

Implications

The findings establish that Norway's near-term EV adoption rates depend substantially on sustained policy incentive structures coupled with coordinated infrastructure expansion. Maintenance of transition momentum beyond the current adoption phase requires continued technological innovation, particularly regarding vehicle affordability and range capabilities. The integration of cultural dimensions into adoption modeling suggests that policy effectiveness may require calibration to contextual social and cultural factors, with implications for transferability of Norwegian policy frameworks to alternative institutional contexts.