What the study found
The study found that more months with very hot temperatures were linked to higher physical inactivity among adults. The authors also projected that physical inactivity will rise by 2050 under all three climate scenarios they examined.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that these temperature-related increases in physical inactivity could lead to additional premature deaths and productivity losses. They say this is especially important in tropical regions and that heat-adaptive urban design, subsidised climate-controlled exercise facilities, targeted heat-risk communication, and emissions reductions are needed to help address the burden.
What the researchers tested
The researchers analysed data from 156 countries from 2000 to 2022 using a binned fixed-effects panel regression model. They examined age-standardised physical inactivity in adults and annual exposure to different temperature ranges, then used climate projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to forecast future inactivity, deaths, and lost productivity.
What worked and what didn't
Each additional month with a mean temperature above 27.8°C was associated with a 1.44 percentage point increase in physical inactivity globally, and a 1.85 percentage point increase in low-income and middle-income countries. By 2050, projected increases in physical inactivity ranged from 0.98 to 1.75 percentage points overall, with some hotspots above 4 percentage points; these changes were translated into an estimated 0.47-0.70 million additional deaths and Intl$2.40-3.68 billion in annual productivity losses.
What to keep in mind
The summary does not describe limitations beyond the modelling approach and the uncertainty shown in the confidence intervals. The future projections depend on the climate scenarios, mortality estimates, and productivity valuation methods used by the authors.
Key points
- The study linked hotter months, especially above 27.8°C, with higher adult physical inactivity.
- The association was larger in low-income and middle-income countries than globally overall.
- By 2050, physical inactivity is projected to rise under all three SSP climate scenarios examined.
- Hotspots of larger projected increases include Central America, the Caribbean, eastern sub-Saharan Africa, and equatorial southeast Asia.
- The authors estimate additional deaths and annual productivity losses associated with the projected inactivity increase.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Rising temperatures are linked to more physical inactivity
- Authors:
- Christian García-Witulski, Mariano Rabassa, Óscar Melo, Juliana Helo Sarmiento
- Institutions:
- Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Universidad de Los Andes, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia
- Publication date:
- 2026-03-17
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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