What the study found
The study found that U.S. presidential approval co-moves with a broad set of macroeconomic conditions in several patterned ways. The strongest descriptions in the abstract are persistence in approval, short-horizon and around-one-year loading of economic information, and especially strong links with public and private sector activity.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that this descriptive approach helps characterize how presidential approval relates to macroeconomic conditions. They also say that combining high-dimensional screening with dynamic analysis can complement parsimonious approaches in the approval literature.
What the researchers tested
The researchers examined economic correlates of U.S. presidential approval from 1953 to 2023 using a large macro-financial dataset. They applied penalized variable-selection methods, Elastic Net and Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation (SCAD), to identify economically relevant predictors, grouped them into six economic categories, and analyzed them in a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework.
What worked and what didn't
Three descriptive patterns emerged. Presidential approval showed strong persistence and retrospective dynamics, with economically relevant information appearing most prominently at short horizons and around one year; public and private sector activity had the strongest and most persistent associations with approval; monetary and labor market conditions contributed in systematic but heterogeneous ways; housing and mortgage indicators were associated with delayed responses; and recession indicators showed short-run dynamics consistent with temporary rally-type patterns.
What to keep in mind
The abstract describes the findings as descriptive and does not claim causal effects. It also does not provide detailed limitations beyond noting that the analysis is a characterization of co-movement over the 1953 to 2023 period.
Key points
- U.S. presidential approval co-moved with a broad set of macroeconomic conditions from 1953 to 2023.
- Approval showed strong persistence, with economic information most prominent at short horizons and around one year.
- Public and private sector activity had the strongest and most persistent associations with approval.
- Housing and mortgage indicators were linked to delayed responses.
- The authors describe the findings as a descriptive characterization rather than a causal claim.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Economic conditions and presidential approval move together in patterned ways
- Authors:
- Youssuf Abdelatif
- Institutions:
- University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee
- Publication date:
- 2026-04-02
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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