What the study found
The study finds that, in the model analyzed, a rise in childlessness generally reduces overall household utility. It also finds that most households prefer childcare support policies, although the tax rates they prefer differ widely.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors say the findings highlight the trade-offs involved in policy design when governments respond to demographic change with fiscal measures. The study suggests that childcare support can be beneficial, but that its effects depend on balancing higher taxes against lower child-rearing costs and possible gains from a larger future workforce.
What the researchers tested
The researchers extended a simple overlapping generations (OLG) model, a framework that tracks how different generations interact over time, to study how rising childlessness affects household utility. They assumed households have different preferences for child-rearing and let the share of childless households be determined by utility maximization. They also evaluated childcare support policies using numerical simulations.
What worked and what didn't
The analysis indicates that increasing childlessness has a negative effect on overall household utility. Numerical simulations suggest that childcare support is preferred by most households, but the tax rates those households prefer vary significantly. The study also notes the policy trade-off between distortionary taxes and the benefits of reduced rearing costs and enhanced social security from a larger future workforce.
What to keep in mind
The summary provides results from a model and numerical simulations, so the findings apply within that framework. The abstract does not describe empirical data, and it does not provide additional limitations beyond the model-based scope.
Key points
- The model finds that higher childlessness generally lowers overall household utility.
- Most households in the simulations favor childcare support policies.
- Preferred tax rates for childcare support differ significantly across households.
- The authors describe a trade-off between higher taxes and benefits from lower rearing costs and a larger future workforce.
- The study uses an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous preferences for child-rearing.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Childlessness is linked to lower household utility in a model study
- Authors:
- Daisuke Ikazaki
- Institutions:
- Japan Women's University
- Publication date:
- 2026-04-06
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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