What the study found
Natural disaster uncertainty showed different patterns of connectedness with major cryptocurrencies, decentralized finance (DeFi) assets, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) during the Russia-Ukraine conflict and elevated inflation. The study reports that this uncertainty had a larger footprint on DeFi assets in bear markets and was more influential on NFTs in bull markets.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors say the findings offer insights into the potential of modern cryptocurrencies to survive during crises when conventional currencies devaluate. They also say the study can serve as a compass for monetary authorities and investors.
What the researchers tested
The study examined dynamic connectedness between an innovative natural disasters index and major cryptocurrencies, DeFi assets, and NFTs. It used data from 14 December 2021 to 31 January 2025 and applied three specifications of the Quantile Vector Autoregressive (Q-VAR) method at lower, middle, and upper quantiles.
What worked and what didn't
The results indicate that natural disaster uncertainty had a larger effect on DeFi assets in bear markets, while it was more influential on NFTs in bull markets. The Ripple, Synthetic, and Gala assets were reported as the most tightly linked with natural disasters' sentiment. The abstract also says higher geopolitical and monetary uncertainties fuel a shift in investors' decision-making criteria.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not describe detailed limitations beyond the study period and the specific crises and market conditions examined. The findings are presented for the Russia-Ukraine conflict period under intense inflationary pressures, so the scope is limited to that setting.
Key points
- Natural disaster uncertainty was more influential on DeFi assets in bear markets.
- Natural disaster uncertainty was more influential on NFTs in bull markets.
- Ripple, Synthetic, and Gala were the assets most tightly linked with natural disasters' sentiment.
- The study used data from 14 December 2021 to 31 January 2025.
- The authors say the findings may help monetary authorities and investors.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Natural disaster risk links differently to DeFi and NFTs
- Authors:
- Nikolaos A. Kyriazis
- Institutions:
- University of Thessaly, University of Cyprus
- Publication date:
- 2026-02-04
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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