ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE AVIATION AND SAFETY STRATEGIES IN THE EUROPEAN AIRPORTS

Overview

This thesis examines climate change impacts on aviation safety within European airports through the lens of Safety Management Systems. The research investigates whether emerging climate-related hazards generate systemic vulnerabilities in European aviation infrastructure and operations, with particular focus on approach and landing phases. The study integrates regulatory frameworks, meteorological data, documented safety events, and qualitative operational analysis to assess preparedness for climate-induced risks.

Methods and approach

The research adopts a multi-pillar methodology combining systematic literature review of regulatory requirements and existing safety evidence, analysis of meteorological datasets relevant to aviation operations, examination of European safety occurrence databases, and qualitative investigation of operational procedures and technological systems. The predictive safety paradigm underlying modern Safety Management Systems frames the investigation of potential climate-weather-operations interactions that could generate vulnerabilities in existing configurations and practices.

Results

Analysis demonstrates that turbulence, reduced visibility, and wind phenomena materially affect safety outcomes. Notably, the relationship between meteorological phenomenon frequency and incident count is non-linear, indicating that risk emerges from interaction between hazard exposure and underlying operational or technological vulnerabilities rather than from hazard frequency alone. Critical vulnerabilities exist at interfaces between human factors, procedural frameworks, and technological systems, particularly during critical flight phases. Data limitations preclude absolute quantification of climate change causality; however, integrated evidence supports the hypothesis that systemic vulnerabilities are emerging or will emerge as climate patterns shift.

Implications

The findings establish that European airport safety systems contain identifiable structural weaknesses at human-procedural-technological interfaces where climate-related meteorological changes interact with current operational configurations. These weaknesses warrant targeted mitigation strategies across multiple system levels to enhance resilience under changing climate conditions.