The Long-term Anthropogenic Processes’ Effects on Ecological Footprints in Morocco: A STIRPAT Analysis Based on Four Co-integration Approaches

Overview

This study examines the long-term relationship between anthropogenic processes and ecological footprints in Morocco using STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) methodology. The analysis spans 1970–2023 and identifies urbanization, economic growth, technological progress, and trade openness as primary drivers of environmental degradation, presenting a case study of sustainability challenges in a developing African economy experiencing concurrent climate vulnerability and developmental pressures.

Methods and approach

The research employs STIRPAT modeling with four cointegration estimation techniques: ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares), DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares), and CCR (Canonical Cointegrating Regression). This methodological framework permits empirical examination of long-run equilibrium relationships between ecological footprints (production, consumption, import, and export components) and socioeconomic variables across multiple decades. The use of four distinct estimators enhances robustness by capturing potential heterogeneity in the cointegrating relationships.

Results

The analysis demonstrates statistically significant positive relationships between ecological footprint expansion and each of the four anthropogenic drivers. Urbanization, economic growth, technological progress, and trade openness each contribute distinctly to increases in specific footprint categories—production, consumption, import, and export footprints respectively. The cointegration methods collectively indicate that these relationships represent long-run equilibrium patterns rather than transitory phenomena, suggesting that Morocco's environmental trajectory has been structurally shaped by these developmental and economic processes.

Implications

The findings establish that current anthropogenic processes in Morocco generate unsustainable environmental pressure trajectories. The persistence of positive elasticities across multiple estimation techniques indicates that conventional developmental pathways—characterized by urbanization, growth, technological adoption, and trade integration—systematically increase ecological footprints beyond regenerative capacity thresholds. Policy interventions must address these structural drivers at multiple institutional levels.