What the study found
Uncertainty in bed topography, the shape and elevation of the land beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet, can substantially affect simulations of Antarctica's future evolution. The abstract reports that these errors can change the Antarctic contribution to sea level by more than 40 cm by 2150 and 1 m by 2300.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that errors in bedrock elevation are a critical but underexplored source of uncertainty. They also state that additional observations in critical regions are needed to help reduce these systemic uncertainties.
What the researchers tested
The researchers examined the impact of bed elevation uncertainty at the continental scale and at regional scales for the Bellingshausen and Aurora basins. They compared this with the impact of climate forcing scenarios and used error estimates reported in BedMachine Antarctica.
What worked and what didn't
Their simulations showed that bed topography can affect Antarctic sea-level contribution by more than 40 cm in 2150 and 1 m by 2300, with effects comparable to those from different emission scenarios. Variations in grounding line retreat, the point where grounded ice begins to float, and mass loss were especially important in the Amundsen Sea, Ross, and Filchner-Ronne basins.
What to keep in mind
The abstract emphasizes that the impact of bedrock uncertainties is even larger in higher-resolution regional and glacier-scale simulations, where grounding line positions and mass change vary more. Limitations are not described in detail in the available summary beyond the reliance on reported BedMachine Antarctica error estimates.
Key points
- Bed elevation uncertainty can change Antarctic sea-level projections by more than 40 cm by 2150 and 1 m by 2300.
- The size of this effect is comparable to differences caused by emission scenarios.
- Grounding line retreat and mass loss are especially important in the Amundsen Sea, Ross, and Filchner-Ronne basins.
- Higher-resolution regional and glacier-scale simulations show even larger effects from bedrock uncertainty.
- The authors describe bedrock elevation errors as a critical but underexplored source of uncertainty.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Bed topography uncertainty strongly affects Antarctic ice-sheet projections
- Authors:
- Justine Caillet, Helene Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki
- Institutions:
- Dartmouth College, Dartmouth Hospital, University at Buffalo, State University of New York
- Publication date:
- 2026-04-23
- OpenAlex record:
- View
- Image credit:
- Photo by MemoryCatcher on Pixabay · Pixabay License
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